Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal

More than six months after the latest round of tensions between the United States and China, it’s clear that this is more than just a trade dispute. It has become a larger fight over who will lead the world economy and technology in the future. The U.S. wants to slow down China’s rise by adding trade and tech restrictions. China, in return, is trying to protect its economy through stimulus plans, finding new markets, and becoming more self-reliant.

In the second quarter of 2025, China’s economy grew by 5.2%. This was slower than the 5.4% in the first quarter, but still better than experts expected. However, some signs of weakness are showing—exports are slowing down, consumer confidence is dropping, and prices are falling. On the other hand, the U.S. economy grew by 3.0% in the same quarter, supported by strong consumer spending and a steady job market.

Since 2018, the U.S. has put tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods. China hit back with its own tariffs, especially on American farm products. As a result, many companies started moving their factories to other countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico. China responded by boosting its own industries especially in important areas like semiconductors and green energy through a strategy called “Made in China 2025.”

The trade war has affected many industries. In the U.S., companies that rely on Chinese parts like tech and car firms faced higher costs. Farmers lost business because of China’s tariffs, which forced the U.S. government to offer billions of dollars in financial help. China also suffered from weaker demand for its goods abroad, but tried to make up for it by building more infrastructure, cutting interest rates, and giving tax breaks to encourage innovation.

Now, both countries are trying to reduce their economic ties to each other. For example, China’s share of U.S. imports dropped from 21% in 2017 to less than 14% by mid-2025. This shows that U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China are working to some extent.

Looking to the future, there are three possible paths. First, tensions could rise, which would hurt both economies and the global market. Second, the two sides might reach short-term deals without fully solving the problem. Third, they could continue slowly separating their economies, which could reshape global trade and create new chances for other countries.

Right now, there’s no clear winner. The U.S. has strong financial tools to handle economic pressure, and China is showing flexibility by adjusting its policies. But the conflict is expensive for both, and the effects are being felt around the world. This trade war has become a long-term strategic competition that will help decide who leads the global economy and technology in the years ahead.

Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal is Head of Economics Department – University of Jordan