Nader Qutaysh

In light of the complex Syrian scene, characterized by the intertwining of internal crises with external interventions, concerns about the future and unity of the country are growing. Recent developments, including the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the takeover of Damascus by factions previously considered radical, have deeply reshaped regional dynamics.

Despite the promises of the new leadership in Syria, especially from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the "verbal openness" shown by Ahmed al-Shara, who is in control following Assad's fall, it is only actions that can provide reassurance.

Many believe that even if the man with a known history keeps his promises, it is likely he will face significant divisions and anger from the factions currently allied (temporarily) with his group. These factions largely believe they are on a path to re-establish the Islamic caliphate worldwide. This was the basis of their motivation, and for this, most of them fought. What, then, will their reaction be to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham abandoning all their extremist promises?

It is certain that it is difficult to predict or definitively determine the outcomes and directions of events in post-Assad Syria, with the control of Islamic factions over Damascus backed by Turkey and other countries. This is coupled with Jordanian and regional fears about replacing the threat of Iranian expansion with the risk of Turkish domination over a country as important and pivotal in the Arab world’s reality and future as Syria. Additionally, there are clear concerns about the risks of foreign funding flowing again into armed factions within Syria, which could lead to arms proliferation and the associated threats to regional and Jordanian security.

For Jordan, the rise of a hardline vision to power in Syria represents a direct threat to its security and stability. The 375-kilometer border between Jordan and Syria forms a sensitive barrier against the consequences of chaos in southern Syria, a region suffering from lawlessness and becoming a haven for drug and weapon smuggling. Furthermore, the chaos could revitalize the activity of the ISIS organization, reminding the world of the previous phase of its rise and the threat it posed to regional and global security.

Jordanian concerns also reflect broader regional stability implications, as the control of Syria by hardline Islamic forces is seen as a catalyst for reigniting the dreams of extremist groups across the entire region. This scenario also increases the likelihood of worsening sectarian and ethnic divisions within Syria, weakening the prospects for achieving stability and rebuilding the state.

Economically, Jordan has been significantly affected by the Syrian crisis, particularly due to the repeated closure of borders, especially the Jaber-Nassib crossing, which has cost the Jordanian economy an estimated $20 billion in losses. Additionally, trade between the two countries remains limited due to Syria’s weakened economy and sanctions imposed on the previous regime. Despite Jordan's efforts to revive economic relations with Syria, security and political obstacles have prevented progress for decades and continue to do so.

It is also important to note that Jordan is hosting more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees, which adds an additional burden to a country already facing growing economic and social challenges. Most of these refugees come from Homs, Aleppo, and rural Damascus. The ongoing security ambiguity in southern Syria hinders their return, despite some relative improvements in other areas of Syria.

Amid these transformations, all eyes are on Jordan's ability to adapt to the new reality. Over decades, Jordan has succeeded in overcoming the turmoil and wars that have swept the region, thanks to balanced policies based on adaptation and alignment with regional and international changes.

During this critical phase, Jordan remains committed to its role as a supporter of stability in the region, emphasizing the importance of building a comprehensive political vision for Syria that restores balance and preserves ethnic and sectarian diversity, away from extremism.

Undoubtedly, Syria’s future, with its challenges and opportunities, requires regional and international cooperation to ensure stability. For Jordan, its national stability and security are closely linked to developments in the Syrian scene. The hope remains that joint efforts will lead to the creation of a democratic and balanced Syria, restoring hope to its people and maintaining the stability of the entire region, away from extremism, authoritarianism, foreign interventions, and ambitions.