BY Amer Al Sabaileh
Recently, the perseverance shown by the Syrian regime, especially during the aftermath of explosions in the national security bureau, may be giving the Syrian crisis a new regional dimension. The rocky road to a settlement in Syria with its regional ramifications is forging possible geographical and political transformations in the whole region, causing each country to struggle through its specific problems to create its own scenario.
The reaction of the Syrian military after the assassination of four key military figures demonstrated the strong structure of the Army. However, the escalation and protraction of the Syrian crisis might channel the whole region into a long dark tunnel. It worth’s mentioning that this highly sophisticated explosion of the Syrian national security bureau coincided with the return of Prince Bandar Bin Sultan to the Saudi secret services. The Saudi Prince is considered the main ally of the Americans, concurrently the first enemy of (Syria, Hezbollah and Iran). Does the return of the strong Saudi prince consolidate the fact that the region is going through a long period of “Intelligence War”, a war which might also involve all the neighbors of Syria: Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Turkey?
The Syrian crisis may be marking the start of a new era. This brings to mind scenes from the cold war of more than 20 years ago. The assertive return of Russia on the international scene today indicates the unilateral policies that have dominated world politics in recent years which are facing a serious challenge. The continuous Russian and Chinese Veto of Arab and Western-backed resolution condemning the crackdown in Syria have initiated a new race for rebuilding international alliances.
The Russian President Vladimir Putin had warned about anti-Syrian movement outside the United Nations. This means that Russia is ready to regionalize the Syrian conflict, and expand from a Syrian conflict to a regional scale. In this quest, Russia has sent an indirect message to Turkey by hosting the Cypriot foreign Minister in Moscow days ago.
Iran, Syria's ally, sent also a clear message. The Assistant Chief of General Staff of Iran's armed forces Brigadier Syed Masood Jazaeri, said that “enemies of Syria can not currently do anything but bomb and terrorize the people." It is a psychological warfare against the Syrian people. They are not able to change the regime there, and friends of the Syrian people will not allow any regime change in Syria. He added: "Syria's allies did not enter the arena in favor of Syria until now, but if they enter, they will direct a big blow to the enemies of Syria, in particular Arab countries allied to America and the Israeli entity. (Al Alam news, 24/july)
From another side, Jordan in particular, will have to watch out for its strategic interests as it faces a real test. The greatest challenge facing Jordan today is how to deal with the consequences of the Syrian crisis, and the risk that the terrorist elements involved that could export their methods to neighboring countries (See NY times July 24). Simply, the Syrian crisis might soon expand into a larger regional crisis. One likely indication is what Haaretz reported Sunday 22/7, that Israel issued a complaint to the UN after Syrian troops entered Golan demilitarized zone.
In a world where interdependence and conflicting interests go hand in hand, global and regional developments are intertwined in forging a new world order. Syria's steadfastness took the Syrian conflict to a new political phase that might result not only in reconfiguring the region, but also shaping a new world order.