Six weeks ago the tableau was a beautiful one. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, flanked by the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, joined by King Abdullah II of Jordan and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt for days of feasting, toasting, and promises from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. to the State Department.
"We have been here before and we know how difficult the road ahead will be," Clinton said on day one of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. "Those that oppose the cause of peace will try in every way possible to sabotage this process, as we have already seen this week. Those of you here today, especially the veterans who are here today, you have returned because you have seen the cost of continued conflict."
Even with that fair warning, the scene today is far bleaker. It is not a case, fortunately, of great violence interceding and thwarting the conversation; instead it is the insidious creep of stagnation.
Pronouncements abound that the talks are dead. There has been no direct-channel communication between the Palestinians and the Israelis since mid-September. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas have traded threats over unilateral declarations of statehood (on the part of angry Palestinian lawmakers) and settlement building (on the part of Israelis). The Israeli moratorium on settlement building expired on Sept. 26. Efforts to extend the ban on building by increments of 60 days unsatisfying to all have been all but totally for naught. Months of backroom conversations leading up to a showy start to talks that have gone nowhere leave no one looking good. Both sides continue to lay down preconditions for coming back to the table that have stymied any progress.
The result is that Secretary of State Clinton and President Barack Obama have been left scrambling, working behind the scenes to resusciate the talks which though not dead require a major transfusion of hope, energy and belief. Even up to last week Clinton was giving rousing speeches to Palestinian groups. "Being pro-Palestinian does not mean you must reject Israel's right to exist." she told the American Task Force on Palestine, to great applause, "And being pro-Israel does not mean you must deny the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people. The path to security and dignity for both peoples lies in negotiations that result in two states living side by side in peace and prosperity, and a comprehensive peace in the entire region. ... There is no substitute for face-to-face discussion and, ultimately, for an agreement that leads to a just and lasting peace."
The American team is hoping to avoid looking like dupes to the rest of the world, hoping to retain diplomatic credibility in the eyes of the Arab World, of the Europeans, who have all but washed their hands of the situation, and of the Israelis. Friarim, Israelis would call it, fools or suckersor, sometimes translated as a word not printable in a family publication.
"It is easy to say no to the United States these days without cost or consequence, that is never a good position for a mediator," Aaron David Miller said today by telephone. Miller, now public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, served as an adviser to both Republicans and Democrats in the region, most recently as senior adviser for Arab-Israeli negotiations. He noted that the United States is coaxing and cajoling the sides to the table, sides that should want to have a seat at this table, sides that should not have to be begged. But domestic squabbles abound. The houses of the Israelis and Palestinians are not in order, and no one expected them to be before talks began. "There are so many problems associated with these negotiations you have to wonder rather than take a high profile approach to them why the administration and I am empathetic to their position, [especially now] it is very very hard to pivot but you have to wonder why they did it so loudly and so noisily."
Miller points out that Netyanyahu's right wing coalition has refused to back the talks and Abbas barely represents the Palestinians. Netanyahu could dissolve his government and a center-right coalition, but has so far failed to do so.
Last week Clinton acknowledged the extent of the problem. "I cannot stand here tonight and tell you there is some magic formula that I have discovered that will break through the current impasse," she said. "But I can tell you we are working every day, sometimes every hour, to the conditions for negotiations to continue and succeed. We are urging both sides to avoid any actions that would undermine trust or prejudice the outcomes of the talks. Senator [George] Mitchell will soon return to the region for further consultations. We have not given up and neither have President Abbas or Prime Minister Netanyahu."
The question remains if the people will give up hope before their leaders.
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